Macroeconomic trends

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued a statement after its interest rate meeting on the 21st, stating that it will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial market development, and is prepared to provide further easing policies as necessary to support economic recovery. At the interest rate meeting that day, the Federal Reserve did not change its monetary policy and still maintained the country's benchmark interest rate in the range of 0 to 0.25%. However, the institution expressed concern about the sluggish economic growth and the worrying low level of inflation. In addition, the Federal Reserve's statement on the same day also stated that it will maintain the policy of reinvesting funds from the maturity of its securities.

On September 10th, the Japanese government announced an economic stimulus package worth 915 billion yen to help Japan's export-oriented economy cope with various issues such as domestic deflation, yen appreciation, and foreign economic slowdown. The plan will be implemented using existing funds to avoid further borrowing. Economists believe that the scale of the above-mentioned plan is too small, and in terms of the problems existing in the Japanese economy, it will not have a significant impact.

This economic stimulus plan involves a wide range of contents, including incentive measures to encourage employment, consumer spending, and domestic investment by enterprises, as well as regulatory reform plans. The Japanese government plans to allocate most of the funds (approximately 450 billion yen) to extend existing subsidy programs and other measures to promote the sales of environmentally friendly homes and consumer electronics. Other contents of the plan include: internship assistance programs to ensure the employment of graduates; Provide financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises to expand their overseas sales channels; And relevant measures to promote the development of "green" industries such as rechargeable batteries, low-carbon emission vehicles, and high-efficiency household appliances. Touched by the weak performance of statistical data, the Japanese government has begun to take action to prevent the Japanese economy from falling into a new downturn. The annualized growth rate of Japan's economy in the second quarter has declined from 5.0% in the first quarter to 1.5%. The head of economic analysis at the Japanese Cabinet Office, Kenji Meixi, stated that 915 billion yen is equivalent to 0.2% of Japan's overall GDP, but the government hopes that the stimulus plan can boost GDP by 0.3 percentage points. He refused to provide further elaboration on whether the government will expand its government bonds in the future.

Affected by the continuous appreciation of the Japanese yen, Japan's foreign trade data in August fell far short of expectations. The data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance yesterday showed that Japan's trade surplus in August was 103.2 billion yen, the first year-on-year decline in nearly 15 months, with a decrease of 37.5%. Among them, Japan's export volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year in August, far below market expectations. Analysts say that the slowdown in export growth is putting greater pressure on the Japanese government, and it is imperative to take more measures to stimulate the economy.

Following the recent introduction of the 915 billion yen economic stimulus plan, Japanese government officials revealed yesterday that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has ordered the development of an additional fiscal budget of up to 5 trillion yen (approximately 54.6 billion US dollars), aimed at addressing the impact of deflation, yen appreciation, and global economic slowdown.

Fundamentals

International crude oil electronic disks remain stable

The NYMEX11 crude oil futures contract once again showed an upward trend, although it fell after rising, it once stood at the integer level of $77 per barrel, and finally closed slightly higher, closing in red for the third consecutive trading day. The US Department of Commerce has revised the building permit data for August, with a revised annual rate of 571000 households, compared to the previous value of 569000 households. And although the US stock market closed lower, a series of merger and acquisition transactions suggest that the company believes there is investment value in the market, and investors remain optimistic about the recovery of the upward trend. The US stock market is expected to record one of the best performing months in 20 years, and it is one of the indicators of economic trends, boosting confidence in crude oil demand. At present, on the one hand, according to a recent report released by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will launch a new round of quantitative easing measures in the first quarter of next year, and interest rates will continue to remain low as a result, which will drive up crude oil prices. If other conditions remain unchanged, for every 1% decrease in real interest rates, oil prices will rise by 3.8%. As a result, Bank of America Merrill Lynch still maintains its forecast for next year's US WTI and Brent crude oil futures at $85 per barrel. And a report recently released by Societe Generale, the second largest bank in France (601166, shares), shows that due to slow demand growth and a significant increase in oil production from non OPEC oil producing countries, the bank has lowered its global oil price forecast for next year from $92 per barrel to $85 per barrel. The report states that the growth in global daily crude oil consumption next year will decrease from 1.8 million barrels this year to 1.4 million barrels. And next year, non OPEC crude oil supply expectations will increase by 80000 barrels, an increase of 220000 barrels per day, while this year it will add 840000 barrels of oil per day. The bank predicts that due to the increase in oil inventories in industrialized countries, the average oil price in the fourth quarter of this year will be $80 per barrel, and there will still be a boost in oil prices during the realization phase. On the other hand, Kuwait's Oil Minister Sabah has called on OPEC member states to strictly comply with current quota regulations and is not concerned about weak oil demand. Faced with the upcoming meeting in Vienna on October 14th, Libya, Iraq, Qatar, Ecuador, and Kuwait have all expressed no expectation of changing existing policies. However, the Nigerian oil minister stated that he expects the country's OPEC daily oil production quota to be raised at the December meeting of the organization's oil ministers. According to a preliminary survey conducted by analysts interviewed by Reuters, it is expected that crude oil inventories decreased by 400000 barrels last week, distillate and gasoline inventories are expected to rise, refinery utilization rates will decrease, and it is expected to help oil prices rise.

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